Wind has the power to revolutionise the UK’s electricity industry, according to a study published on Wednesday
Research from analysts Poyry says that the UK can massively expand
wind power by 2030 without suffering power cuts or a melt-down of the
The cost of electricity would then be determined not by consumer demand, but by how hard the wind is blowing.
When it is windy power will be so cheap that other forms of generation will be unable to compete, the report says.
If accepted by government, these key findings could strongly influence the UK’s future energy supplies.
study was done for National Grid, Centrica and others. The researchers
reviewed 2.5 million hourly weather reports on wind speeds all around
If the wind were to drop
everywhere round the UK (as happened during the January high pressure
cold snap), other generators would make their money by switching on
back-up fossil fuel power stations for a very short time, charging
extremely high prices, it predicts.
Dr Phil Hare from Poyry
said these back-up generators might stand idle for years without making
a profit – so the government might need to find a new way of ensuring
they were funded.
The study bases its assumptions on current levels of subsidy. It
concludes that thanks to the wind subsidy through the “Renewable
Obligations Certificates” issued by regulator Ofgem, electricity prices
would be negative if the wind were blowing hard.
will have to evolve to accommodate the wind. The average output of a
wind turbine is only about a third of its full capacity. So when the
wind is blowing strongly you’ll have to turn some of the wind power
off; otherwise it will swamp the system,” Dr Hare said.
power stations will have to be built with variable output so they –
like gas and coal plants – can occasionally cut their power when the
wind is blowing most strongly. It does look as though nuclear, coal and
gas are competing for the same share of the market.”
said the study answered another key question: whether we could move to
widespread intermittent power from the wind, waves and tides together.
people were worried that the complexity stemming from intermittent wind
with an overlay of tidal power peaking twice a day might simply have
been too much change for the grid to bear. But our research shows the
grid can cope.”
The study amplifies a recent paper from
National Grid itself stating that a move towards wind power would not
necessitate widespread investment in expensive back-up power plants
fuelled by gas or coal.
This is a key finding which helps remove one of the main barriers to the advance of wind (although some will remain sceptical).
But it comes with a warning. Dr Hare said: “It will cost more. There is no such thing as cheap green power – that is a myth.”
authors of a report from the Royal Society this week made the same
point. But politicians are still reluctant to pass on this message to