ABS Energy Research report for Wind Power.

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2009 was a record year for offshore wind investment, which ABS feels is unwarranted given the major bottlenecks in the offshore supply chain – a lack of offshore vessels and subsea cabling. In the onshore sector there are no immediate supply chain bottlenecks. However, the growing trend towards large scale turbines may be slowed somewhat in 2010 due to the logistics of transporting large, bulky turbines and the high costs involved. Additionally, larger turbines require the use of expensive carbon fibres and specialised plastics to replace cheap glass fibre used in small scale turbines. Supplies of carbon fibres may hit a bottleneck by 2017.

With the sector entering the mature phase, there is a greater pressure towards the standardisation of components especially because of the sector’s high operating and maintenance costs. To reduce high O&M costs many developers are opting to purchase gearless rather than geared turbines. However, gearless turbines use neodymium, which hit the headlines recently due to concerns that China’s export policy for rare earth metals would lead to near term supply shortages.

On the plus side, for European and American manufacturers, competition from manufacturers shipping products from India and China is unlikely to affect their dominance in local markets. Due to the high costs of transporting turbines and towers, and uncertainty over whether carbon emissions reductions will apply to the shipping sector, localised supply chains will be the future of the sector. Complete supply chains have already formed in North America, Europe and Asia.

Overall 2010 is expected to be a good year for the wind sector, especially in the China, the USA and Eastern Europe.

Lack of access to financing and poor grid infrastructure still remains as the biggest barrier to project development.

This report provides an outline of the world wind energy industry and market, with market surveys of each of 5 major markets and 21 intermediate markets, together with national policies and support plans and incentives. Analysis of the manufacturing base, supply chain, wind power developers and owners.Historical analysis from 1990 and forecasts of capacity to 2012, with forecasts to 2020 for the major markets. National targets and incentives are listed. Factors affecting wind power are outlined and crucial issues such as variability and intermittency, dispatchability, capacity factors and capacity credits are discussed and assessed.

Outline of the report:*please see table of contents for further details

• The development of wind energy: the market in 2009

• The future of wind power, 2009 to 2012

• Assessment of factors affecting wind power; terminology, issues and the operational experience of the most experienced wind power operators

• National policies for renewable energy – targets, support mechanisms, RPS policy and feed-in tariffs

• National wind power markets – comprehensive surveys of the 5 market leaders, survey of the 21 intermediate wind power markets, brief profiles of 22 new entrants

• Wind Industry Supply Chain- vertical integration, supply chain in the electro-technical industry, raw material, lead times, turbine production capacity, components balance of plant, tire 1 and tier 2 – rotor blades, gear boxes, bearings, cast iron and forged components, towers, transformers

• O&M issues and delays

• The rare earths supply crisis

• Weather forecasting

• Energy storage

• Development of wind turbine size

• Wind Farm Developers and Owners

• Manufacturing Base

• Off-Shore Wind Power

• Promising technologies

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