The solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing sector in the United States is undergoing significant transformation, driven by advancements in cell technologies. This article delves into the various cell technologies currently shaping the industry, examining the implications of this diversification and the challenges that lie ahead.
Understanding the Landscape of US PV Manufacturing
In previous discussions, the focus was primarily on the overall manufacturing capacity within the US solar supply chain. While this approach provided a broad overview, it overlooked the critical aspect of the specific cell technologies that underpin this capacity. Understanding the technology mix is essential, as it reveals whether the current landscape is a result of strategic planning or a reaction to external pressures, such as trade enforcement risks.
Thin Film Technology: A Unique Case
Among the various technologies, thin film solar cells, particularly those produced by First Solar, stand out. The US boasts the largest concentration of thin-film solar capacity globally, with a reported capacity of 19.5GW and a production figure of 15.4GW, resulting in a commendable utilisation rate of approximately 79%. This efficiency is attributed to the manufacturing process, where the cadmium telluride semiconductor layer is deposited directly during module fabrication, eliminating the need for a separate wafer-to-cell conversion step. Consequently, thin film technology does not experience the same cell-to-module bottleneck that affects other technologies.
The Crystalline Silicon Dilemma
In stark contrast, crystalline silicon technologies present a more complex scenario. The three primary crystalline technologies—Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC), Heterojunction (HJT), and Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon)—exhibit varying degrees of capacity and production efficiency. For instance, PERC modules have a capacity of 24.8GW with a production of 15.4GW, leading to a utilisation rate of 63%. However, the cell capacity for PERC is only 7.5GW, with a production of 4.6GW, indicating a reliance on imported cells for over half of the silicon used in US-assembled PERC modules.
HJT technology mirrors this pattern on a smaller scale, with a module capacity of 5.5GW and production of 2.4GW, resulting in a utilisation rate of 44%. The cell capacity for HJT stands at 2.1GW, with a production of 1.3GW, covering approximately 38% of the module capacity. Meanwhile, TOPCon, which has the highest module capacity at 32.7GW and a production of 22.2GW (68% utilisation), faces a significant gap at the cell stage, with only 1GW of capacity and a mere 311MW of production, yielding a low utilisation rate of 31%.
Strategic Diversification Amid Legal Risks
The US solar manufacturing landscape is characterised by a notable degree of technology diversification, which contrasts sharply with global trends where TOPCon has become the dominant crystalline technology. This diversification does not appear to stem from a strategic optimisation of efficiency or costs; rather, it seems to be a defensive manoeuvre against legal risks associated with patent litigation. The industry’s historical migration from PERC to TOPCon and subsequently to back-contact architectures has been fraught with legal challenges, prompting many US manufacturers to explore alternative pathways.
As a result, some manufacturers have opted to invest in HJT as a parallel technology, while others have chosen to maintain their PERC production instead of following the conventional progression seen in other markets. This strategic pivot highlights the industry’s response to the uncertainties posed by ongoing patent disputes.
Future Technology Bets and Capacity Projections
Insights from the US Domestic Solar Manufacturing Tracker indicate that the trend of diversification is not merely a temporary phase but rather a structural characteristic of the US solar manufacturing sector. The tracker reveals that at the cell stage, TOPCon leads with 13.1GW of newly announced capacity, followed closely by HJT at 12.16GW and PERC at 11.8GW. In contrast, the module stage shows a significant concentration of announced capacity in HJT, with 16.56GW, while TOPCon and PERC lag behind at 1GW and 4GW, respectively.
This divergence in technology focus raises important questions about the future of US solar manufacturing. While TOPCon remains a preferred choice for new cell capacity due to its established commercial viability and efficiency advantages, the growing interest in HJT for module assembly suggests that manufacturers are seeking to mitigate the legal risks associated with transitioning to back-contact technologies. This trend indicates a potential shift in the market dynamics, where multiple technologies coexist rather than converging on a single dominant solution.
Conclusion: Navigating the Future of US Solar Manufacturing
The evolving landscape of US solar manufacturing presents both opportunities and challenges. As manufacturers navigate the complexities of diverse cell technologies, the question remains whether this multi-technology approach can sustain itself amid increasing competitive pressures and capacity scaling. The final article in this series will explore the future trajectory of US solar manufacturing capacity through 2030, examining the implications for manufacturers, policymakers, and the broader market dynamics that will shape the next phase of development.
Source: PV Tech
