Delta-ee has run independent analysis looking at the customer and long term market impacts of a potential increase of VAT on low carbon products. Steven Ashurst, Research Manager of the Microgen Insight Service at Delta-ee comments:

From our analysis it is clear that if a standard rate of VAT is applied to low carbon heating products, an already challenging market will become more difficult.


Delta-ee’s Microgen Insight Service shows that for low carbon products, an increased rate of VAT of 20% typically adds more than £1,000 to the end user cost, which for GSHP and micro-CHP sees a drop in customer willingness to pay of more than 50%. Our primary research consistently shows that upfront costs are a major barrier to low carbon technologies.

Delta-ee’s Pathways© Tool & Roadmap Service forecasts that under a scenario where a 20% VAT rate is applied to ASHP, GSHP, biomass boilers and mCHP, the combined annual sales would reach ~60,000 units per annum by 2025, 40% less than compared to the 5% VAT rate.

Philippa Hardy, Research Manager of the Pathways Tool and Roadmap Service at Delta-ee adds:

With the new Zero Carbon Home policy, and with the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) and other key drivers under freshscrutiny, it is clear that the potential implementation of the higher VAT rate would add to the challenges facing the market.

Delta-ee has carried out sensitivity analysis on the effect of removing the RHI, Zero carbon homes and other drivers on our long term forecast of annual sales of residential heating technologies. Delta-ee’s findings on the significant impact of a VAT increase scenario are summarised in the latest Delta-ee Briefing Note which can be found on the homepage of our website –

Notes to Editors

Delta-ee is a research and consulting company that provides its clients with information, analysis, insight and advice in emerging decentralised energy markets.

For this study, Delta-ee’s Microgen Insight Service carried out primary research, assessing homeowners’ willingness to pay for the technology and identified a significant drop in the uptake of the low carbon technologies under this scenario – by more than 50% for GSHP and micro-CHP.

Delta-ee’s Pathways© Tool & Roadmap Service forecast indicates that under a VAT increase scenario, market growth relies greatly on new build, however with the recent government announcement on Zero Carbon Homes, the new build opportunity in our reference scenario is also likely to diminish.


SOURCE Delta Energy & Environment


Announcement from our Chairman, David C BarclayThe World Renewable Energy Association are delighted to announce the launch of a brand-new initiative exclusively for its members. The Renewable Energy Finance Hub has been launched following the largest survey undertaken with UK businesses conducted by WoREA in conjunction with the UK Government and its partners. Reduce your businesses carbon footprint today and begin your journey towards net zero!